Platina Ezel - New Trigger Calculations

Since I've been waiting for 3 hours to get into MTG Arena and it's still down, I decided to burn some time by writing this article.  Yes, I do math when I'm bored.

For those unaware, Platina Ezel's new effect is:

Blazing Lion, Platina Ezel 
[ACT](VC):[COST][Counter-Blast 1], and change this turn's first drive check to "look at two cards from the top of your deck, reveal one card from among them in your trigger zone, and call one card from among them to (RC)." If your soul has two or more grade 3 cards, change the second drive check of the turn and more as well.

Let's start with the basic odds.

Odds of hitting at least one trigger off of a normal Twin-Drive!!: 55.1%
Odds of hitting at least one trigger with no grade 3's in soul: 70.39%.
Odds of hitting at least one trigger with a grade 3 in soul: 80.88%

Odds of hitting two triggers off of a normal Twin-Drive!!: 10.2%
Odds of hitting two triggers with no grade 3's in soul: 17.22%
Odds of hitting two triggers with a grade 3 in soul: 30.36%

The big thing to notice here is that your odds of hitting two triggers is the biggest boon this card's selective trigger checking grants to you.  The odds are the same as hitting a single trigger or more on two independent Twin-Drives!!, which is why the number is so comically large.  If you are just aiming to hit a singular trigger, you should recall that the number for no grade 3's in soul is identical to the odds of hitting a trigger with OG CEO Amaterasu.  Obviously, one-to-passing Ezel is going to be a non-option.  Two-to-passing also isn't particularly safe (especially if fronts are involved), as the odds of the Platina player hitting two triggers are about the same as the odds of a normal Twin-Drive!! getting a single trigger.  Hopefully, being armed with this information will help to keep you aware of what the general risk level is with each decision.

Why Overguarding is Key

This is the single most common play mistake I see experienced players do. Yesterday, I was playing against an OTT deck that had 15 cards in hand. I was at five damage with little-to-no means of surviving the next turn. Now, typically, people will not throw all effects of all triggers onto their vanguard, so guarding to the point where they need two triggers is a great way to conserve your own hand most of the time. But, if your opponent has absolutely no chance to win and you give them an opportunity by saying, "Two to pass", you yourself have just admitted to the chance of them winning. My opponent was at 4 damage, I do my first drive check and get a Draw Trigger, I give the power to my vanguard (since if I don't win now, I won't win), draw, second drive check. I get a critical and win. All my opponent had to do to secure victory was drop another draw trigger. Come on, guys. Don't let this be you at nationals. Don't throw this hard. Keep your guaranteed victories guaranteed and overguard when it is needed.