Pellinore Superior Ride Probabilities

With the recent addition of Gold Paladin, I got around to reading Pellinore, and the card is actually amazingly strong.  Based on that information, I decided to figure out what the odds of hitting Pellinore are when calling cards from the deck.  For the sake of this example, Lop-Ear Shooter is assumed to be at 4 in the deck.

Calling Pellinore off of Vivianne:

1 Copy of Pellinore: 2.564%
2 Copies of Pellinore: 5.128%
3 Copies of Pellinore: 7.692%
4 Copies of Pellinore: 10.256%

Calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter or Spring Breeze Messenger:

1 Copy of Pellinore: 7.692%
2 Copies of Pellinore: 14.8%
3 Copies of Pellinore: 21.873%
4 Copies of Pellinore: 28.384%

Calling Lop-Ear Shooter off of Vivianne, then calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter:

1 Copy of Pellinore: 0.197%
2 Copies of Pellinore: 0.759%
3 Copies of Pellinore: 1.682%
4 Copies of Pellinore: 2.911%

Calling Lop-Ear Shooter off of Spring Breeze Messenger, then calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter:

1 Copy of Pellinore: 0.592%
2 Copies of Pellinore:  2.19%
3 Copies of Pellinore:  4.784%
4 Copies of Pellinore:  8.057%

Calling Lop-Ear Shooter off of Lop-Ear Shooter off of Vivianne, then calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter:

1 Copy of Pellinore:  .0005%
2 Copies of Pellinore: .0018%
3 Copies of Pellinore:  .0041%
4 Copies of Pellinore:  .007%

Calling Lop-Ear Shooter off of Lop-Ear Shooter off of Spring Breeze Messenger, then calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter:

1 Copy of Pellinore:  .0014%
2 Copies of Pellinore:  .0053%
3 Copies of Pellinore:  .0116%
4 Copies of Pellinore: .0195%

I'm assuming nobody would discard for a third Lop-Ear just to attempt to hit Pellinore so further calculations will assume that you won't do this.

Total Odds of Calling Pellinore off of Vivianne:

1 Copy of Pellinore:  2.7615%
2 Copies of Pellinore:  5.8888%
3 Copies of Pellinore:  9.3781%
4 Copies of Pellinore:  13.174%

Total Odds of Calling Pellinore off of Spring Breeze Messenger:

1 Copy of Pellinore:  8.2854%
2 Copies of Pellinore:  17%
3 Copies of Pellinore:  26.6686%
4 Copies of Pellinore:  36.4605%

Platina Ezel - New Trigger Calculations

Since I've been waiting for 3 hours to get into MTG Arena and it's still down, I decided to burn some time by writing this article.  Yes, I do math when I'm bored.

For those unaware, Platina Ezel's new effect is:

Blazing Lion, Platina Ezel 
[ACT](VC):[COST][Counter-Blast 1], and change this turn's first drive check to "look at two cards from the top of your deck, reveal one card from among them in your trigger zone, and call one card from among them to (RC)." If your soul has two or more grade 3 cards, change the second drive check of the turn and more as well.

Let's start with the basic odds.

Odds of hitting at least one trigger off of a normal Twin-Drive!!: 55.1%
Odds of hitting at least one trigger with no grade 3's in soul: 70.39%.
Odds of hitting at least one trigger with a grade 3 in soul: 80.88%

Odds of hitting two triggers off of a normal Twin-Drive!!: 10.2%
Odds of hitting two triggers with no grade 3's in soul: 17.22%
Odds of hitting two triggers with a grade 3 in soul: 30.36%

The big thing to notice here is that your odds of hitting two triggers is the biggest boon this card's selective trigger checking grants to you.  The odds are the same as hitting a single trigger or more on two independent Twin-Drives!!, which is why the number is so comically large.  If you are just aiming to hit a singular trigger, you should recall that the number for no grade 3's in soul is identical to the odds of hitting a trigger with OG CEO Amaterasu.  Obviously, one-to-passing Ezel is going to be a non-option.  Two-to-passing also isn't particularly safe (especially if fronts are involved), as the odds of the Platina player hitting two triggers are about the same as the odds of a normal Twin-Drive!! getting a single trigger.  Hopefully, being armed with this information will help to keep you aware of what the general risk level is with each decision.