Updated for Standard - How Likely is it to Die at 3 Damage from a Twin-Drive!! Attack?

 

How likely is it to be double crit from a Twin-Drive!! attack at 3 damage? (Assuming 16 Triggers in a 50 Card Deck) - Critical Triggers are capped at 8, but some Over Triggers can give bonus critical, so we will count them in this calculation.  If the opponent has:

9 Criticals - 2.94%
8 Criticals - 2.29%
7 Criticals - 1.71%
6 Criticals - 1.22%
5 Criticals - 0.82%
4 Criticals - 0.49%
3 Criticals - 0.24%
2 Criticals - 0.08%
1 Critical - 0%
0 Criticals - 0%

How likely is it to heal out of being double crit at 3 damage (Assuming your damage is equal or greater than your opponent)?

5 Heals - 27.6%
4 Heals - 22.56%
3 Heals - 17.27%
2 Heals - 11.76%
1 Heal - 6%
0 Heals - 0%

How likely is it to heal out of being double crit at 3 damage (Assuming your opponent has 4 damage)?  In this case, the Over Trigger counts not only as a "Heal", but also doesn't care about what damage you're at, adding 2% to the odds of healing in all instances.  The odds to the left are the odds of any trigger (including the OT) going off.  The odds on the right are the odds of the OT going off on a damage check where a heal would NOT go off.  The odds of heals succeeding without OTs would just be the left number.  The number after the equals sign is the total probability of healing out of the attack that would bring you to 5 damage assuming you are running Over Triggers.

5 Heals - 19.18% + 2% = 21.18%
4 Heals - 15.51% + 2% = 17.51%
3 Heals - 11.76% + 2% = 13.76%
2 Heals - 7.92% + 2% = 9.92%
1 Over Trigger/No Heals - 6%
1 Heal - 4%
0 Heals - 0%

How likely is it to heal out of being double crit at 3 damage (Assuming your opponent has 5 damage)?  In this case, the Over Trigger counts not only as a "Heal", but also doesn't care about what damage you're at, adding 4% to the odds of healing in all instances.

5 Heals - 10% + 4% = 14%
4 Heals - 8% + 4% = 12%
3 Heals - 6% + 4% = 10%
2 Heals - 4% + 4% = 8%
1 Over Trigger/No Heals - 6%
1 Heal - 2%
0 Heals - 0%

How likely is it to heal out of being double crit at 3 damage (Assuming your opponent has 6 damage because Greedon, lol)?  In this case, only the Over Trigger can heal you.

5 Heals - 6%
X Heals/No OT - 0%
...
1 Over Trigger/No Heals - 6%
0 Heals - 0%

 

Now that we have those numbers, we can calculate the total probability of actually dying...

How likely is it to die from a double crit from a Twin-Drive!! attack at 3 damage if your opponent is at 3 or less damage with 5 heals in your full deck?

9 Criticals - 2.13%
8 Criticals - 1.66%
7 Criticals - 1.24%
6 Criticals - 0.88%
5 Criticals - 0.59%
4 Criticals - 0.35%
3 Criticals - 0.17%
2 Criticals - 0.06%
1 Critical - 0%
0 Criticals - 0%

 

And there we have it.   The odds of getting kekked if your opponent is running an Over Trigger that gives a critical to the Vanguard is about 1/47.  That number shrinks rapidly to about 1/60 if they just have 8 critical triggers.  It skirts closer to 1/80 if they run 7 crits (which isn't uncommon if they max 20k shield fronts).