2021 - The End of an Era

As much as my silence has indicated, I have more or less effectively quit Cardfight!! Vanguard.

That doesn't mean that I won't come back at some point, but the reboot from V series ended my desire to play.  Yes, it is now twice that my decision to fully SP out Blaus was followed shortly with a reboot announcement.  Oof.  Coupling this with my decision to stop playing Vanguard Zero, and I'm effectively just not playing Vanguard and haven't in months.  I decided to take a look at the reboot, but it took all of two sets for genuine problems to be found showing that Bushiroad simply hasn't learned its lesson in printing creep to outdo the previous sets and they will probably never stop.

This isn't to say I'll never come back, though.  I do enjoy what Vanguard was.  It's not all that different now.  But, as things stand, the absolute worst thing I could do is invest myself into something I'm not currently enjoying.  All of my Vanguard friends and I still have regular board-game nights and want to start up our Dungeons and Dragons campaigns, and I find great enjoyment in those.  I'm not "out" of the community either.  I'll still shitpost on Vanguardians from time to time.

That being said, I'm currently just backlogged on games I do enjoy and I've recently been pushing out things I was playing out of obligation instead of fun, and I feel much better for it.  I haven't decided what the future of my YouTube channel will be, but time will tell.

Megacolony Zero - Card Review and Thoughts

Since we kind of know that I have a bit of a thing for the colon, I figured I'd drop my thoughts on the Megacolony support in Zero.

Let's start:

Mechanic - Paralyze 

Paralyze got buffed considerably from in the original.  All units that "prevented restanding" in the original game now "paralyze", which was a term already used to describe the effect, due to the anime.  Paralyze makes the unit unable to move circles (even through card effects like Wheel Assault) in addition to being unable to stand during the stand phase or through card effects/stand triggers and also forces the card to rest.

Starters

Larva Mutant, Giraffa

The first thing we'll take note of is how few cards are actually different in Megacolony.  Ignoring how Paralyze functions differently, only a few cards have any text changes.  I'll cover those in a bit more depth.  For this, it's the same thing you're used to seeing with Blaus, Ambers, and the Blaster chain, all of which have been out for a while.  If you ride the grade 1 over it, you get to grab the grade 2.  The difference is that Giraffa as a grade 2 VG is objectively better than any of the other grade 2 Vanguards.  I'll cover that more when I get to him.

Rating 4/5

Machining Worker Ant

Machining Worker Ant surprised me.  I figured it would have had some other change in effect and not just be a vanilla starter if you miss your Stag Beetle.  Given how many grade 3s we can run, how Stag Beetle functions in ZERO, and the other weaknesses involved with this card, it's actually far worse in ZERO than it was in the original (and it was already pretty bad in the original).  Hopefully more comboing mechanisms will be released later, but it's doubtful.

Rating 1.5/5

Megacolony Battler C

Battler C got buffed in that it's the same effect (Move to soul, Paralyze any RG on VG hit that it boosted) but now it doesn't cost a counterblast, which is honestly great.  The big problem with early Megacolony (and one of the reasons why it splashed Mr. Invincible so often) was how counterblast intensive it was.  This has gone a long way to fix those issues in conjunction with the buff on Master Beetle.  All in all, a great card.

Rating 4/5

Grade 1s

Karma Queen

Didn't get buffed.  Was too expensive then.  It's definitely too expensive now.

Rating 1.5/5

Machining Hornet

On call, becomes 10k for a turn if you have a Machining Soul.  Due to how much worse Stag Beetle functions in this game, I'm not certain there's room for this.

Rating 2/5

Machining Mosquito

On call, soul charge 1.  Amazing card outside of Machining due to Master Fraude's ability to soul blast 3 and to draw on hit (even rear guards!).  I think Fraude is going to be in every deck and there is space to fit it (at max) in all builds other than Giraffa where it becomes the one-of tech.

Rating 4.5/5

Megacolony Battler B

When an attack hits a VG that it boosted, counterblast one to paralyze a RG.  I don't think I need to explain that this card is a staple in any deck.  It goes behind the Vanguard, typically, so its 6k base is rarely punished.  There is a case that you run 3 of this and 2 of your tech since you're best off with just one behind the Vanguard, but if you want consistency (or fear retirement) there's no harm in having 4, in my opinion.

Rating 5/5

Paralyze Madonna

Rating PG/5

Pest Professor, Mad Fly

On hit that it boosts, discard and draw.  A decent tech for your tech slot (for non-Giraffa builds), but I'd caution against it, since you're drawing, soul charging, and with this, filtering.  You could potentially be at risk for deck out if running draws.

Rating 3/5

Phantom Black

Rating Vanilla/5

Pupa Mutant, Giraffa

The grade 1 for the ride chain.  Can also be used to grab a grade 3 Giraffa from deck by discarding a grade 3.  Secondary skill is lackluster, primary skill is great.

Rating 4/5

Stealth Millipede

[UPDATE] Since writing the original article, I have since learned that force-rest DOES occur from Paralyze.  That increases Stealth Millipede's viability somewhat.  However, in comparison to Battler B who hits comparable numbers with most of your Vanguard picks, I just don't see the point in choosing this as an option.

Rating 2.5/5

Toxic Soldier

Nullifies intercepts when it attacks?  Forces out nulls and deals damage and lets you keep Paralyzed front row units in place with main phase stuns?  Yes please.

Rating 5/5

Grade 2s

Bloody Hercules

Rating Vanilla/10

Elite Mutant, Giraffa

Giraffa has a powerful on-hit skill and has a nice 10k butt to wall with.  Now that I've learned that Paralysis forces a rest, they either have to go first and use their starter, have an ACT starter, or you can paralyze said starter.  Thus, in the MLB match-up, if you go first, you can stun Wingal Brave before they have an opportunity to use it irrespective of what they choose to do.  All-in-all, an amazing card dampened by having a non-viable grade 3 attached to it.

5/5

Ironcutter Beetle

Imagine if the entire viability of your boss card required this card to be on the field.  Well, that's the case.  The goal of the Giraffa deck is to pop backrows, hope the opponent can't call boosters, hope the opponent doesn't have 12ks, and force the VG to swing into the 12k.  If not, hopefully after popping the backrow a couple of time, the idea is to sit on an 11k butt with beefier RGs so they can't hit them.  Since we're living in a meta of 12k attacking RGs and are going into an even more dense meta of 12k attacking RGs (oh, and front-row retirement) this card's viability is cut deeply.  Still, definitely not a bad card in that your opponent needs specific outs to handle it to overcome your strategy.  Too many decks have the outs, though.

Rating 3.5/5

Lady Bomb

Still too expensive.

1.5/5

Machining Armor Beetle

Because the Machining core build is weaker, you're left with using this in the Fraude build.  But, you can transfer your -1 to Paralyze into a +1 with Fraude, effectively negating its cost for a free Paralyze.  It's great for stunning grade 1/3 front row RGs as they appear and amazing in conjunction with Toxics on late turns if you stun front row interceptors and bypass them with Toxics to ping/finish.  I would personally hold onto Armor Beetles for late game to do just this.  Decks that call to open (RC) like Golds feel pretty bad about this card as well.  This was a staple 4-of promo in the base game and I don't see too much different here.

Rating 4.5/5

Machining Mantis

With lackluster support, it's hard to justify Mantis in the current metagame.  I also think there's not enough grade 2 space to make it work.  It's not a bad card, but it doesn't have the pieces to work currently, in my opinion.

Rating 2/5

Tail Joe

[UPDATE] Now that I've learned that Paralyze forces a rest, Tail Joe is somewhat more viable.  The only issue is that you want it to attack and clear the front row and Master Beetle needs to be attacking a Vanguard for your most reliable Paralyze to occur.  Grade 2 space isn't super tight, so if you want the chance at 11k go for it.  I'm not the biggest fan of something that can be cleared with 8k vanillas, however.

Rating 2.5/5

Toxic Trooper

Yes please on an interceptor that can hit crossrides with your forerunner.

Rating 5/5

Transmutated Thief, Steal Spider

With only Vesper as a mechanism to secure board (outside of Machining, which is hurting in other ways) this card has limited capacity to secure its card draw.  Still, if you're opting to run Machining, this isn't a bad filler tech and makes for a solid grade 2 ride.

Rating 1.5/5

Water Gang

Great, like all Libra clones.  Only, now we have waaaay more counterblasts to mess around with, making a use of Water Gang perfectly acceptable.  Between Toxic Trooper, Giraffa, and Ironcutter, there isn't much space in that build, but this works great in a Master Beetle deck with Trooper.

Rating 4/5

Grade 3s

Bewitching Officer, Lady Butterfly

Not much to say.  12k vs. VG attacker.

Rating 2.5/5

Death Warden Ant Lion

Soul charges each turn.  Great VG to partner with RG Fraudes for card advantage.  Hits 12k unboosted and hits the magic number of 18k with a Battler B booster.  The Megablast is actually very easy to pull off as well, and makes for a devastating turn where you don't attack with VG when using it and use double Toxic swings to try and end/force PGs, then they are crippled the following turn.  Soul requirement can even be met on the turn you ride to grade 3 with little issue.

Rating 4/5

Evil Armor General, Giraffa

It's sad to see a card that seems really bad but actually isn't that bad still be really bad because it's set 2 strong in set, what, 9?  If there weren't a slew of competing 12k interceptors and it could play like "Good Card Kagero", sniping back rows and walling with an 11k butt, it would have been a great card in a great deck.  But it was simply printed waaaaay too late for this to be the case.  It's not even close to viable in the current card pool.  It's sad, really.  All that potential, wasted.

Rating 1/5

Hell Spider

If this card was just 3k on-attack, it would be fine.  But it's 3k if the whole enemy board is rested.  Sadly, it's too easy to play around.  Hitting crossrides with no boost would have changed the scope of this card's viability entirely.  Now it's just meh.

Rating 1.5/5

Machining Stag Beetle

Due to no longer retaining Twin-Drive!!, you'd think getting extra cards would be more helpful, but sadly, they just aren't due to the restrictions on said cards.  You have to effectively neg calling out your starter and using Armor Beetle to shove it back in makes the whole process a wash.  Then, if you ride again (which you'll want to do to avoid being on a 10k vanilla vanguard) you go -1 and gained, effectively, nothing for your troubles.  Fraude utilizes the soul in a far more efficient way and doesn't have the advantage come in at rest.  It's just too old of a card in too restricted an archetype to really be useful.  When the next wave hits, that may change, however.

Rating 1.5/5

Martial Arts Mutant, Master Beetle

[UPDATE] I used to hate Master Beetle for being CB3.  It's now CB1.  Wew lad is that a buff.  On swing at VG, LB4, CB1, stun 2.  Now that I've learned that Paralyze forces the cards to rest, Master Beetle is insanely undercosted and is, honestly, an even more crazy card than I thought.

Rating 5/5

Master Fraude

On-hit, SB3, draw 1.  Amazing, amazing card.  Also gains 3k when boosted, so it hits 19k with Battler Bs on VG circle (doubling up on the on-hit pressure).  You can even use Battler C in the same row and hit a VG to stun and draw, even if you were one soul shy.  All-in-all, a great card.

Rating 4.5/5

Violent Vesper

Gigantech Charger clone.  Great to use as a heal.  On call, call top card is generically useful.  It had extra usage with Giraffa, but Giraffa is just too many sets behind to care.

Rating 4/5

Decklists

I'm opting not to make a Giraffa or Machining decklist as they're both less budget and inferior to the budget list.

Beetle/Fraude

Starter - Battler C

4 PGs
4 Toxic Soldier
3 Battler B
2 Mosquito

4 Water Gang
4 Toxic Trooper
4 Machining Armor Beetle
1 Bloody Hercules

4 Master Beetle (HEAL)
4 Fraude (DRAW)
3 Vesper (DRAW)
2 Ant Lion (DRAW)

Ride preference:  Beetle > Ant Lion > Fraude > Vesper

This deck is the best overall deck, so far as I can tell.  You have Beetle as the preferred ride and heal trigger.  Either you heal or you ride your boss (or you missed a 4-of all game in a deck that draws cards a lot which is super unlikely).  Whenever you see Beetle, you should hopefully be pretty happy about it.  The primary tactic is to clear the front row interceptors with on-hit pressure (Water Gang, Fraude) and swing with on-hit pressure from your Vanguard (Battler B) and, if useful, using Beetle's skill to double-stun.  This deck plays a lot like OTT (with 8 Toms), only with combo play and disruption.  I imagine that even if Megacolony ends up being bad (I'm not sure how it will perform, but it definitely wants to reach end game for its wincon), it will still be immensely fun to play.


Budget Colony

Starter - Battler C

4 PGs (If you don't have 4 PGs yet, then increase Battler B and Mosquito until you have 13 grade 1s)
4 Toxic Solider
3 Battler B
2 Mosquito

4 Toxic Trooper
4 Machining Armor Beetle
X Water Gang (However many you can squeeze in)
X Bloody Hercules (Whatever is left over)

4 Fraude (Draw)
4 Vesper (Heal)
4 Ant Lion (Draw)
1 Tech Choice (Butterfly Officer isn't a bad call, but it doesn't really matter)

This plays identically to the above list, only Ant Lion is the preferred ride and you want to keep Fraudes out as much as possible on RC.  Place cards in the deck as best as you can until you reach the non-budget deck.  Considering the non-budget deck is 4 RRRs, 8 RRs, it's honestly not super hard to get the main deck completed, given that you get 2 of the PGs for free.

Final Thoughts [UPDATED]

Based on what Megacolony has, I have no doubt that it would be strong, even in the current crossride meta of Zero.  The problem Megacolony has right now, however, is that it has too many archetypal/ride chain cards that just don't mesh nicely with everything else and have standalone weaknesses.  The Toxic cards being overpowered as all get out was a pleasant touch and made the grade 1 and 2 space fill out nicely.  Thus, the gameplan is to play old school Megadrawlony with Beetle and Toxic card support, now that they aren't awful.  Paralyze is actually incredible, only being unable to impact grade 2s meaningfully.  Of course, you can always be big brained and stun their grade 2s AND not attack with your Vanguard (unless your Vanguard is also a Toxic unit, and honestly, staying on a Toxic Vanguard might be a thing) to ping them through your Toxic units.  Ideas to keep in mind for later.

Ride Chain/PG/Heal Farming is now the only viable VP farming build

You hate to see it.

After running tests with a 5k starter (to attempt to just get class levels for Shadow Paladin, of which I was averaging less than 2 full levels a day because of the server issues) I noticed that I was getting substantially greater VP gains when I switched to Ride Chain/PG/Heal farming to level up OTT.  Of course, due to the changes, this is absolutely no surprise to anyone.  While the entire community could benefit from all VP farmers switching to 5ks and not running PGs or Heals (greatly decreases game length, greatly increases VP gain, etc.) as long as 20-30%~ of the community are running Ride Chain PG Heal farms (and a non-substantial portion of the community is running other farms, but nowhere near the quantity of the ride chain farmers), there's just no room for anything other than ride chains and 6ks in this meta, except ride chains are the worst match-up for 6ks, and with their one bad match-up being meta dominant, that's an oof.

This means that if you want to get class levels, you're better off running 4ks and a non-attacking auto-clicker.  Except these absolute morons running the ride chain farms don't seem to know how to run an auto-clicker that attacks after you ride to grade 3.  So then you have like 25 minute matches where you couldn't hit them anyway (barring you playing 6k/ride chain).  Hilariously, because they top charge on ride, you end up winning, but it's not really worth it.  So then you slow things down with attacks and pray that they don't hit enough heals/nulls and you kill them before you die.  But then you lose from decking out.  There is no "winning" with fast matches precisely because the state of the auto-clicking meta is so toxic due to the VP changes.

So, here's a PSA:  If you're using Bluestacks and playing a Ride Chain/Farm Build and you find that you aren't attacking, run the "Auto Ride Deck VP Farmer 2.1".  I don't think it "fixes" if you have a match fail to load and may not work if you rank up.  Whatever, check back every so often.  Run this if you're too lazy to manually create your own working clicker so that games don't take 25 years.

Yes, I'm helping them attack because if we can't get everyone to run 5ks and VP farm together to get free ranks, cards, rewards, etc. because we're all too intrinsically selfish/stupid to do so, then we're just stuck with 25 minute games if anyone wants to afk level up other clans for those gem rewards unless I can educate some digital dummies on how to utilize a functioning auto-clicker.

Not much else can be done due to how the rewards function this time around.  🤷

Pellinore Superior Ride Probabilities

With the recent addition of Gold Paladin, I got around to reading Pellinore, and the card is actually amazingly strong.  Based on that information, I decided to figure out what the odds of hitting Pellinore are when calling cards from the deck.  For the sake of this example, Lop-Ear Shooter is assumed to be at 4 in the deck.

Calling Pellinore off of Vivianne:

1 Copy of Pellinore: 2.564%
2 Copies of Pellinore: 5.128%
3 Copies of Pellinore: 7.692%
4 Copies of Pellinore: 10.256%

Calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter or Spring Breeze Messenger:

1 Copy of Pellinore: 7.692%
2 Copies of Pellinore: 14.8%
3 Copies of Pellinore: 21.873%
4 Copies of Pellinore: 28.384%

Calling Lop-Ear Shooter off of Vivianne, then calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter:

1 Copy of Pellinore: 0.197%
2 Copies of Pellinore: 0.759%
3 Copies of Pellinore: 1.682%
4 Copies of Pellinore: 2.911%

Calling Lop-Ear Shooter off of Spring Breeze Messenger, then calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter:

1 Copy of Pellinore: 0.592%
2 Copies of Pellinore:  2.19%
3 Copies of Pellinore:  4.784%
4 Copies of Pellinore:  8.057%

Calling Lop-Ear Shooter off of Lop-Ear Shooter off of Vivianne, then calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter:

1 Copy of Pellinore:  .0005%
2 Copies of Pellinore: .0018%
3 Copies of Pellinore:  .0041%
4 Copies of Pellinore:  .007%

Calling Lop-Ear Shooter off of Lop-Ear Shooter off of Spring Breeze Messenger, then calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter:

1 Copy of Pellinore:  .0014%
2 Copies of Pellinore:  .0053%
3 Copies of Pellinore:  .0116%
4 Copies of Pellinore: .0195%

I'm assuming nobody would discard for a third Lop-Ear just to attempt to hit Pellinore so further calculations will assume that you won't do this.

Total Odds of Calling Pellinore off of Vivianne:

1 Copy of Pellinore:  2.7615%
2 Copies of Pellinore:  5.8888%
3 Copies of Pellinore:  9.3781%
4 Copies of Pellinore:  13.174%

Total Odds of Calling Pellinore off of Spring Breeze Messenger:

1 Copy of Pellinore:  8.2854%
2 Copies of Pellinore:  17%
3 Copies of Pellinore:  26.6686%
4 Copies of Pellinore:  36.4605%

Is VP Farming Actually Dead?

Based on my calculations, it doesn't have to be.

While there is a hard cap on VP farming itself with packs ceasing after the 2 Million VP mark, there is still quite a bit of incentive to VP farm in Vanguard Zero.  Namely, you still get the cosmetics and gems from leveling up clans, you can still get some VP when you sack a first turn trigger, and if enough people continue to VP farm, you will still be able to gain rank (and VP at vastly improved rates).  The only thing dampening the effectiveness of VP farming at this point is how many people are willing to do it.  Technically, if everyone ran 5k base powered Vanguards and opted into VP farming, everyone would cap out VP and hit ranks of over 30, which sounds like all we're missing from previous seasons would be about 60 packs.  Given how comically lucrative VP farming was in past seasons, I think this only makes sense that the reward would be lessened.

So, how much VP would you actually earn if you decided to VP farm right now and nobody else was VP Farming?  Assuming they call an intercept on turn 2 every game (unlikely) I've calculated the average number of damage you deal per game to be about .561, meaning that you'll be averaging around 282 VP per game assuming the worst case scenario and you can only attack the vanguard once each game.  This is, of course, less than 15% of previous profits.  But it's also not a meaningful estimate because the opponent won't always have that interceptor, which means that on games where they don't, you average double the VP.  Additionally, if you fight a VP farmer, your average VP increases by nearly 10x (2.6k).

As you can see, from that number, if we have 20% of the community VP farming, how does this change the numbers?  Even assuming the interceptor is always present turn 2, you end up with an average of 746 VP per game.  That's roughly triple the output, just because people opted in to keep VP farming.  It's also roughly 37% of previous profits, which is far, far better than the other number.  I doubt we'll see VP farming at the levels we saw previously, but it's still viable in this context.

Finally, for VP Farming to work meaningfully, everyone needs to be doing the same thing.  The more people "take advantage" of VP farming to run things like ride chains or 6ks, the worse off the entire prospect will be.  It reduces the VP of all parties involved, because ride chains sometimes miss and can't hit 6ks and ride chains sometimes succeed earlier than they should and 6ks can't hit them.  Everyone running 5ks fixes every possible issue and the less people try to capitalize, the better for the VP farming community as a whole.

Given that over half of the VP farmers last season were Galahad/Tsuk farmers, my confidence that these individuals will play nice if they find out VP farming is still viable is pretty minimal.  But I digress, the more people VP farm, the better VP farming is.  The more people screw up VP farming, the worse it is.  The viability of the practice going forward is entirely based on the community.  We have a true Prisoner's Dilemma on our hands with VP Farming.

Are Galahad and Tsuk VP Farming ACTUALLY Good?

No.

Oh?  I have to explain why?  Sure.

Let's set some criteria for "Automated VP Farming Statistics".

Overall
Game Length (vs. non-VP Farmers)
Game Length (vs. VP Farmers)
Game Length (vs. non-attacking VP Farmers)
Winrate

The idea that Tsuk and Galahad farmers intended to instantiate was to trade Game Length vs. non-VP Farmers for Winrate.  Did that work out?  I mean, sort of.  But the payouts were marginal at best and the tradeoffs were huge.  It also had the unintended consequence of increasing the Game Length vs. VP Farmers by an even wider margin.  Some may have considered Tsuk/Galahad making it to grade 3 and having Twin-Drive!! or an 11k butt that the opponent can't hit, but this is improbable.  On average, it will take you as many turns to make it to grade 3 as the game lasts, so you won't be gaining these benefits, typically. 

 Let's put some stats down for VP Farming decks and explain how they got there.

3k Farmer (no attack)

Overall - S (Due to smaller amount of non-attack VP Farmers)
Game Length (vs. non-VP Farmers) - S+++
Game Length (vs. VP Farmers) - S
Game Length (vs. non-attacking VP Farmers) - F (longest possible games, actually)
Winrate - F (can't win unless opponent concedes)

3k Farmer (attack)

Overall - A
Game Length (vs. non-VP Farmers) - S++
Game Length (vs. VP Farmers) - A
Game Length (vs. non-attacking VP Farmers) - D (many no-attack farmers use larger bodies)
Winrate - D

4k Farmer (no attack)

Overall - S (Due to smaller amount of non-attack VP Farmers)
Game Length (vs. non-VP Farmers) - S+++
Game Length (vs. VP Farmers) - S
Game Length (vs. non-attacking VP Farmers) - F (longest possible games, actually)
Winrate - F (can't win unless opponent concedes)

4k Farmer (attack)

Overall - A
Game Length (vs. non-VP Farmers) - S++
Game Length (vs. VP Farmers) - A
Game Length (vs. non-attacking VP Farmers) - B
Winrate -D+

5k Farmer (no attack)

Overall - C- (No real reason to run 5k no-attack farming when all clans have 4k starters)
Game Length (vs. non-VP Farmers) - S++
Game Length (vs. VP Farmers) - B (More VP farmers have to trigger to hit you)
Game Length (vs. non-attacking VP Farmers) - F (longest possible games, actually)
Winrate - F (can't win unless opponent concedes)

5k Farmer (attack)

Overall - S+
Game Length (vs. non-VP Farmers) - S++
Game Length (vs. VP Farmers) - S
Game Length (vs. non-attacking VP Farmers) - A+ (only weakness is 6k non-attackers)
Winrate - D+

6k Farmer (no attack)

Overall - F (Yet this is extremely popular for some reason?!)
Game Length (vs. non-VP Farmers) - A (Harder for opponent to make rows to hit over triggers)
Game Length (vs. VP Farmers) - D (Only two decks can hit you, barring hitting a ride chain/trigger)
Game Length (vs. non-attacking VP Farmers) - F (longest possible games, actually)
Winrate - F (can't win unless opponent concedes)

6k Farmer (attack)

Overall - S
Game Length (vs. non-VP Farmers) - S++
Game Length (vs. VP Farmers) - B+ (Slow matchups against Tsuk/Galahad, which is already slow)
Game Length (vs. non-attacking VP Farmers) - S
Winrate - C-

Tsukuyomi/Galahad Chain Farmer (attack)

Overall - C
Game Length (vs. non-VP Farmers) - C+ ((Lower rating due to ride chain animations)
Game Length (vs. VP Farmers) -B- ((Lower rating due to ride chain animations and 6ks)
Game Length (vs. non-attacking VP Farmers) - B+ (Lower rating due to ride chain animations)
Winrate - C-


Tsukuyomi/Galahad Chain Farmer + Heals/PGs (attack)

Overall - D-
Game Length (vs. non-VP Farmers) - F (Lower rating due to ride chain/PG/Heal animations/game extensions)
Game Length (vs. VP Farmers) - C- ((Lower rating due to ride chain animations/PGs/Heals, and 6ks)
Game Length (vs. non-attacking VP Farmers) - B+ (Lower rating due to ride chain animations)
Winrate - C+


Tsukuyomi/Galahad Chain Farmer + Heals/PGs (non-attack)

Overall - F---
Game Length (vs. non-VP Farmers) - F---
Game Length (vs. VP Farmers) - F---
Game Length (vs. non-attacking VP Farmers) - F---
Winrate - F---
Troll Rating - S+++


So, let's take a look at the good and the bad here and explain the current trinity of VP Farming:

The three decks that seem to be the best at face value are:

5k attacking
6k attacking
Tsuk/Galahad ride chain

However, 6k and Tsuk/Galahad ride chain have a massive issue with their match-up:  Namely, The odds of riding up in Tsukuyomi off of the ride chain being less than hitting a coin flip each turn increases the duration of the games in this match-up due to the decks "taking turns" being able to hit each other without triggers.

We take for granted how amazing the Tsukuyomi ride chain is because you can ride from hand or top 5 of the deck.  However, with no selective mulligan and no hand-riding, your odds of riding up to grade 1 with Tsukuyomi/Galahad are: 43.616%.  The odds of riding grade 1 Tsuk/Galahad in two turns is 68.209%.  The odds in three turns are 82.075%.  Inverted, this gives us the odds of missing them.

Your odds of being a 5k against a 6k while running the ride chain:

Turn 1 - 56.384%
Turn 2 - 31.791%
Turn 3 - 17.925%

This means that for the first few turns, you have very likely odds as a 6k to be hitting the Tsuk/Galahad and them missing you barring triggers because they missed their ride.  Then, you flip that around when the ride does eventually happen and now you're just spending extra time having the person who was winning start to lose.  And to make matters even less consistent, triggers will throw the defensive walls being utilized into utter disarray, which could invalidate the temporary advantage that either side may have had.  Neither deck truly edges out over the other in winrate by a significant margin.  Thus, in theory, there's no reason to run the Galahad/Tsukuyomi ridechain over and against a 6k butt because that's the only match-up that both wouldn't just have an advantage in by default.

Unfortunately, because both exist and because both counteract each other (and Tsuk/Galahad also counteracts its own mirror), it means that you have a "bad matchup" for game speed on the VP Farming ladder for both decks.  This is why the 5k farmer who can hit Tsuk when Tsuk misses the chain, but will never failed to be hit by Tsuk or the 6k butt is the objectively best VP farming deck for pushing the ladder (not that VP farm decks are particularly great for this) and for speed, because it will never have a slow game.  No slow games means more chances to string VP farming opponents.  More VP farming opponents in a row means more potential to gain ranks.  Since ranks can't be lost, it's about match quantity over marginal increases to winrate that will help you climb.

Heals and PGs will improve the winrate for any of the VP farming decks (albeit by an incredibly marginal amount) AND because they prolong games, it can help you to hit your ride chain as Tsuk/Galahad, but that makes matters even worse because it's match count, not winrate, that will get you rank ups through automated farming.  The 6k deck with heals and PGs is actually just as "strong" as the Tsuk/Galahad deck and substantially faster, so it's also superior in this case.

The final tier list results are:

Best VP Farming decks - 5k Attacking (S+), 6k Attacking (S), 3k non-attacking (S), 4k non-attacking (S).

Note:  Non-attacking decks are only S tier right now because so few people are doing it.  If it gets popular and you start running into mirrors, it will drop to C tier.

Disclaimer - I am not advocating that you should or should not use an auto-clicker to VP farm.  What I am advocating for is if you're going to do it, make your experience and your opponent's experience better and do it properly.

Vanguard Zero - Probabilities

Trigger Probabilities

Single trigger (on any given drive/damage check) = 1/3  = 33.33%
Double triggers (on any given Twin-Drive!!) = 10.526%
Getting a heal trigger on any given drive/damage check (assuming 4 are ran) = 10.256%
Odds of getting at least one heal trigger when you hit two consecutive triggers =  53.846%
Odds of getting a heal trigger when you Twin-Drive!! = 19.703%
Odds of getting a heal trigger when double crit at 3 with same/more damage = 28.384%
Odds of getting a heal trigger when crit at 4 with same/more damage = 19.703%
Odds of getting a heal trigger when hit at 5 with same/more damage = 10.256%
Odds of getting two heal triggers when crit at 5 damage = 0.81%
Odds of hitting a trigger on Twin-Drive!! if you always send non-triggers to the bottom with CEO Amaterasu = 71.55%

Getting a 9-of trigger on any given drive/damage check = 23.077%
Getting an 8-of trigger on any given drive/damage check = 20.513%
Getting a 7-of trigger on any given drive/damage check = 17.949%
Getting a 6-of trigger on any given drive/damage check = 15.385%
Getting a 5-of trigger on any given drive/damage check = 12.821%
Getting a 4-of trigger on any given drive/damage check = 10.256%
Getting a 3-of trigger on any given drive/damage check = 7.692%
Getting a 2-of trigger on any given drive/damage check = 5.128%
Getting a 1-of trigger on any given drive/damage check = 2.564%
Getting a 0-of trigger on any given drive/damage check = 0%


Getting one specific trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 9 in deck = 41.256%
Getting one specific trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 8 in deck = 37.247%
Getting one specific trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 7 in deck = 33.063%
Getting one specific trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 6 in deck = 28.745%
Getting one specific trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 5 in deck = 24.291%
Getting one specific trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 4 in deck = 19.703%
Getting one specific trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 3 in deck = 14.978%
Getting one specific trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 2 in deck = 10.121%
Getting one specific trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 1 in deck = 5.128%
Getting one specific trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 0 in deck = 0%


Getting two of the same trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 9 in deck = 4.858%
Getting two of the same trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 8 in deck = 3.779%
Getting two of the same trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 7 in deck = 2.834%
Getting two of the same trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 6 in deck = 2.024%
Getting two of the same trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 5 in deck = 1.35%
Getting two of the same trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 4 in deck = 0.81%
Getting two of the same trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 3 in deck = 0.405%
Getting two of the same trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 2 in deck = 0.135%
Getting two of the same trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 1 in deck = 0%
Getting two of the same trigger on a Twin-Drive!! check with 0 in deck = 0%

Transraizer Probabilities

Odds of getting a grade 1 off of Transraizer = 34.211%
Odds of getting a grade 2 off of Tranraizer = 31.579%
Odds of getting a unit off of Transraizer = 65.789%
Odds of getting a Transraizer off of a Transraizer = 7.895%
Odds of getting a unit off of Transraizer off of a Transraizer = 5.121%
Odds of Transraizer whiffing = 34.211%

I was going to make a section on riding probabilities, but the odds of misriding are so low and we live in a 9 draw meta, so I can't imagine that it's all that necessary.  Especially with ride-fixing cards in the game such as Gancelot and Aleph.  Thus, because the math was too hard for a percentage in the extreme upper-90's, I've simply opted to exclude them.

Vanguard Zero - Initial Thoughts, Opinions, and Theory-Crafting

After watching a full game of Vanguard Zero, I've come to a few conclusions about what's going to be busted and what will be balanced.

First, I'll explain some core mechanics so you can follow what the game plays like.

You have a 40 card deck.  A vanilla starter, 13 grade 1s, 13 grade 2s, and 13 grade 3s that are also trigger units (you get to choose what type of triggers they are).  This next part is conjecture, but I can only assume that you are limited to 4 heals.  If we get to use 9 critical triggers, that will be fancy.  I may even evaluate if running fewer heals and more crits would be worthwhile.  Spoilers, it probably will be if my theories are remotely accurate.

The board is setup the same as vanilla Vanguard.  You have a Vanguard circle and 5 RG slots in the normal locations.  Riding and calling function identically to vanilla Vanguard.  That's about where the similarities end.  When it comes time to attack, you'll notice that you are unable to call Guardians.  That's because Guarding isn't "a thing" in this game.  Instead, your opponent must attack "interceptors" before they can swing at your face.  This means that front row units are going to be consistently played and removed throughout the course of the game.  Being able to maintain a board is key, as it is the difference between getting donked in the face once per turn or several times in a turn.  Naturally, retiring a grade 2 on your opponent's field during your main phase leads to you getting an extra swing at their face, so retirement is pretty good.

For actual combat, drive checks function normally (other than grade 3s having 5k shield value and being triggers now).  Damage checks are wildly different, however.  When you take a damage, your Vanguard gains power equal to the shield value of the damage checked unit (which is always 5000 currently).  If your opponent cannot hit 16k, then 21k (assuming you have no front row grade 2 RGs and they don't hit triggers), then simply damage checking can shut down their offense.  Additionally, perfect guards do exist in the game.  They don't require a discard to use, and automatically nullify the first attack done at your Vanguard that turn while they are in your hand.

Speculation:  It was not mentioned whether or not that attack needs to have enough power to "force" the activation of the null guard.  Something to look out for in the future.

With those core mechanics out of the way, the rest of the game functions like Vanguard, and games are won by going to 6 damage.  All of the units I've seen have had their original skills (barring Dragonic Overlord, which gets Drive -2 on VC), but that is likely to be subject to change after more testing is done and they've already made the claim that cards could change for balancing purposes.

With all of that out of the way, let's talk some OP (in theory) units from the older sets.

Dragonic Overlord (on RG) - Dragonic Overlord was always a strong RG in early Vanguard in my opinion.  I doubt they'll allow deck mixing, but if they do, he had some nutso synergy with Mr. Invincible, Hungry Dumpty, and Claydoll.  In Vanguard Zero, assuming you have an 11k RG row and a Waterfall on Vanguard, you could easily CB3, wipe out the interceptors, swing 11k to VG, swing Overlord to Vanguard, Swing Waterfall to Vanguard and get in three damage that your opponent can't really do anything about (unless they have a null guard or damage check a draw and draw a perfect guard).  That's devastating.

Dragonic Kaiser Vermillion - Similar in concept, attacking the Vanguard and the Interceptors at the same time is pretty good.  In OG Vanguard, you would lose 10k~ shield.  In Vanguard Zero, you will lose your face to the two subsequent attacks that you can't guard as long as the RG rows can get the needed power to hit over the damage checks, which is the core concern Narukami seems to have at the moment.   Additionally, Shiden and Raiden "stopped interceptors" in OG Narukami.  Interested in seeing how those transition.

Bonus Critical Vanguards/Rear Guards - It should be pretty obvious that bonus crit units are cancer when not only can the opponent not guard, but they also must use their perfect guards as soon as they are able to.  If you aren't attacking Vanguard last, you are heavily incentivized to pass crits to your RGs (as the only thing that could make the next attack be nullified would be them hitting a draw trigger (10% if they run 4) into a null guard (10%) which comes out to a 1% chance for them to do so, so giving them less damage checks on the between is going to be extremely beneficial.  If the unit in question can hit 3 critical, it's just game over at that point.

Look to Gancelot either being overpowered (trading a trigger back to deck for an interceptor is already strong, especially since you pick which units are which trigger and this will be your heal.  If he can CB4 for +10k +2 crit like in OG, it's game over) or nerfbatted/changed completely.

On-hit units - This also shouldn't be much of a surprise to anyone.  If you control when your opponent is able to guard, you control when your on-hit effects proc.  The majority of on-hit effects in the early game were either CB2 draw a card effects or Megablasts (draw 5 cards/retire all opposing RGs), so this won't be an overwhelming advantage necessarily.  But the alternative Enigman builds from set 8 would certainly be stepped up quite a bit (made worse with Laurel being a card) and Aqua Force would also get some solid usage out of Hydro Hurricane Dragon.  Things to keep in mind.

At the end of the day, these theories are based largely off of what we've seen so far and what is likely to be coming for the game in the near-ish future, assuming major changes to cards aren't in the works (they probably are).

Some cards aren't even playable without grade 0s (RIP in Aleph).  So there are definitely going to be changes.  Hopefully Bushiroad doesn't screw up the game balance super early, but they're Bushiroad, so... they probably will.