With the recent addition of Gold Paladin, I got around to reading Pellinore, and the card is actually amazingly strong. Based on that information, I decided to figure out what the odds of hitting Pellinore are when calling cards from the deck. For the sake of this example, Lop-Ear Shooter is assumed to be at 4 in the deck.
Calling Pellinore off of Vivianne:
1 Copy of Pellinore: 2.564%
2 Copies of Pellinore: 5.128%
3 Copies of Pellinore: 7.692%
4 Copies of Pellinore: 10.256%
Calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter or Spring Breeze Messenger:
1 Copy of Pellinore: 7.692%
2 Copies of Pellinore: 14.8%
3 Copies of Pellinore: 21.873%
4 Copies of Pellinore: 28.384%
Calling Lop-Ear Shooter off of Vivianne, then calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter:
1 Copy of Pellinore: 0.197%
2 Copies of Pellinore: 0.759%
3 Copies of Pellinore: 1.682%
4 Copies of Pellinore: 2.911%
Calling Lop-Ear Shooter off of Spring Breeze Messenger, then calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter:
1 Copy of Pellinore: 0.592%
2 Copies of Pellinore: 2.19%
3 Copies of Pellinore: 4.784%
4 Copies of Pellinore: 8.057%
Calling Lop-Ear Shooter off of Lop-Ear Shooter off of Vivianne, then calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter:
1 Copy of Pellinore: .0005%
2 Copies of Pellinore: .0018%
3 Copies of Pellinore: .0041%
4 Copies of Pellinore: .007%
Calling Lop-Ear Shooter off of Lop-Ear Shooter off of Spring Breeze Messenger, then calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter:
1 Copy of Pellinore: .0014%
2 Copies of Pellinore: .0053%
3 Copies of Pellinore: .0116%
4 Copies of Pellinore: .0195%
I'm assuming nobody would discard for a third Lop-Ear just to attempt to hit Pellinore so further calculations will assume that you won't do this.
Total Odds of Calling Pellinore off of Vivianne:
1 Copy of Pellinore: 2.7615%
2 Copies of Pellinore: 5.8888%
3 Copies of Pellinore: 9.3781%
4 Copies of Pellinore: 13.174%
Total Odds of Calling Pellinore off of Spring Breeze Messenger:
1 Copy of Pellinore: 8.2854%
2 Copies of Pellinore: 17%
3 Copies of Pellinore: 26.6686%
4 Copies of Pellinore: 36.4605%
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