Wednesday, July 1, 2020

Pellinore Superior Ride Probabilities

With the recent addition of Gold Paladin, I got around to reading Pellinore, and the card is actually amazingly strong.  Based on that information, I decided to figure out what the odds of hitting Pellinore are when calling cards from the deck.  For the sake of this example, Lop-Ear Shooter is assumed to be at 4 in the deck.

Calling Pellinore off of Vivianne:

1 Copy of Pellinore: 2.564%
2 Copies of Pellinore: 5.128%
3 Copies of Pellinore: 7.692%
4 Copies of Pellinore: 10.256%

Calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter or Spring Breeze Messenger:

1 Copy of Pellinore: 7.692%
2 Copies of Pellinore: 14.8%
3 Copies of Pellinore: 21.873%
4 Copies of Pellinore: 28.384%

Calling Lop-Ear Shooter off of Vivianne, then calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter:

1 Copy of Pellinore: 0.197%
2 Copies of Pellinore: 0.759%
3 Copies of Pellinore: 1.682%
4 Copies of Pellinore: 2.911%

Calling Lop-Ear Shooter off of Spring Breeze Messenger, then calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter:

1 Copy of Pellinore: 0.592%
2 Copies of Pellinore:  2.19%
3 Copies of Pellinore:  4.784%
4 Copies of Pellinore:  8.057%

Calling Lop-Ear Shooter off of Lop-Ear Shooter off of Vivianne, then calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter:

1 Copy of Pellinore:  .0005%
2 Copies of Pellinore: .0018%
3 Copies of Pellinore:  .0041%
4 Copies of Pellinore:  .007%

Calling Lop-Ear Shooter off of Lop-Ear Shooter off of Spring Breeze Messenger, then calling Pellinore off of Lop-Ear Shooter:

1 Copy of Pellinore:  .0014%
2 Copies of Pellinore:  .0053%
3 Copies of Pellinore:  .0116%
4 Copies of Pellinore: .0195%

I'm assuming nobody would discard for a third Lop-Ear just to attempt to hit Pellinore so further calculations will assume that you won't do this.

Total Odds of Calling Pellinore off of Vivianne:

1 Copy of Pellinore:  2.7615%
2 Copies of Pellinore:  5.8888%
3 Copies of Pellinore:  9.3781%
4 Copies of Pellinore:  13.174%

Total Odds of Calling Pellinore off of Spring Breeze Messenger:

1 Copy of Pellinore:  8.2854%
2 Copies of Pellinore:  17%
3 Copies of Pellinore:  26.6686%
4 Copies of Pellinore:  36.4605%

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