Monday, November 25, 2013

Just How Likely is it to Die at 3 Damage to a Double Crit?

Odds of checking double criticals with X amount of criticals in your deck.

16 Crits: 10.2%
15 Crits: 8.9%
14 Crits: 7.74%
13 Crits: 6.63%
12 Crits: 5.6%
11 Crits: 4.68%
10 Crits: 3.82%
9 Crits: 3.06%
8 Crits: 2.38%
7 Crits: 1.79%
6 Crits: 1.28%
5 Crits: 0.85%
4 Crits: 0.51%
3 Crits: 0.26%
2 Crits: 0.085%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%

Odds of damage checking heals with 4 in your deck.

Checking a heal: 8.16%
Double checking heals: .5%
Triple checking heals: .02%
Quadruple checking heals: .00047%

Checking one heal in two damage checks: 15.8%

Checking one heal in three damage checks: 22.98%

The odds of dying to an opponent if you have the same or more damage (your opponent is at 3 or less damage) when you take the 3 critical attack at 3 damage would be:
 

16 Crits: 7.856%
15 Crits: 6.855%
14 Crits: 5.961%
13 Crits: 5.106%
12 Crits: 4.313%
11 Crits: 3.605%
10 Crits: 2.942%
9 Crits: 2.357%
8 Crits: 1.833%
7 Crits: 1.379%
6 Crits: 0.986%
5 Crits: 0.655%
4 Crits: 0.393%
3 Crits: 0.2%
2 Crits: 0.065%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%


The odds of dying to an opponent if you have one less damage (your opponent is at 4 damage) when you take the 3 critical attack at 3 damage would be:


16 Crits: 8.59%
15 Crits: 7.49%
14 Crits: 6.52%
13 Crits: 5.58%
12 Crits: 4.73%
11 Crits: 3.94%
10 Crits: 3.22%
9 Crits: 2.58%
8 Crits: 2%
7 Crits: 1.51%
6 Crits: 1.08%
5 Crits: 0.72%
4 Crits: 0.43%
3 Crits: 0.22%
2 Crits: 0.072%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%


The odds of dying to an opponent if you have two less damage (your opponent is at 5 damage) when you take the 3 critical attack at 3 damage would be:

16 Crits: 9.37%
15 Crits: 8.17%
14 Crits: 7.11%
13 Crits: 6.09%
12 Crits: 5.14%
11 Crits: 4.3%
10 Crits: 3.51%
9 Crits: 2.81%
8 Crits: 2.19%
7 Crits: 1.64%
6 Crits: 1.18%
5 Crits: 0.78%
4 Crits: 0.47%
3 Crits: 0.24%
2 Crits: 0.078%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Megacolony Decks

So, it surprises me that budget decks have overtaken both mixed and rush decks for the lists that you guys want to see.  Since the economy sucks and money is tight, I'm going to be releasing a quick series of budget decks.  Let's go with the cheapest, and most unreasonably underestimated clan of all, MEGACOLON.  For these budget decks, any card that costs more than a buck will be labelled with a rough pricing, so you can get a good idea of how much the deck will cost you.

Machining Deck:

The Machining build focuses around its soul.  It uses Machining units that are in soul by either giving a rear guard Mantis or Hornet +3000 power if one exists in there, or riding a Stag Beetle and choosing two of the Machining units from soul and bringing them to rear guard circles and giving Stag Beetle their power.  Since they come out at rest, Worker Ant is typically one of the units that is brought out, since it stands a Machining when it gets called.  If used in conjunction with Machining Armor Beetle, you can put Worker Ant back in the soul to stun (prevent standing) an opponent's unit while getting to call Armor Beetle and letting it stay standing, all while making your Vanguard +14000 power.  It's pretty strong.  You can also make 21k on the RG by calling a Hornet (which will be a 10k boost for that turn) behind a Tail Joe or a Mantis that was also called that turn.  Hell Spider is a strong back-up ride.  Vesper lets you get a cheap plus to compensate for using Armor Beetle (or just to be a free plus).

Starter - Machining Worker Ant

Triggers - 8 crit, 4 draw, 4 heal

Grade 1's

4x Paralyze Maddonna ($6)
4x Machining Hornet
4x
Machining Mosquito
2x Megacolony Battler, B <- Best grade 1 MEGACOLON

Grade 2's

4x
Machining Armor Beetle ($3, in the current promo packs) <- Best grade 2 MEGACOLON
4x Machining Mantis
3x Tail Joe

Grade 3's

4x
Machining Stag Beetle ($2)
2x Hell Spider
2x Violent Vesper


COST - $44 + R's and C's


Giraffa Deck:

This deck is really strong at tanking early game.  Generation 2 (set 4) ride chains are over 50% likely to hit their grade 1 and secure you an 8k and 10k Vanguard for your first two turns.  If you miss the grade 1, 3/10 of your back-up rides are 8k, which can give you reasonable tanking early regardless.  If you go first with this deck, it's very easy to shut down any deck that doesn't have the ability to rush you by dropping a 10000 power shield to negate the first attacks they do.  This is because (especially with archetypes) most people will have a 7000 power Vanguard boosted by a 5000 power forerunner, which, even with a trigger, isn't strong enough to break through 8000 + 10000.  Late game, you're all sad that you managed to miss the grade 2, even though the odds of that happening are terrible.  NO WORRIES!  Toss the grade 2 into soul later in the game with Armor Beetle, problem solved.  :D  Okay, now that early guarding and stuff is out of the way, let's talk about the deck.

The grade 1 Giraffa allows you to discard a grade 3 to search your deck for the grade 3 Giraffa.  You have the ability to make 20000 rows with your rear guards by using Iron Cutter, or 18k with Iron Cutter and a Battler B/Giraffa boost.  Both the grade 2 and the grade 3 Giraffa have good on-hit effects.  But there's plenty of tactics with the deck, too.  If your opponent is low in damage, you can disrupt their field heavily if Giraffa hits (retire 2 of your units, retire two of their grade 1's).  If it's boosted by a Battler B, you can also stun one of their front row units.  Priority of stuns should typically be:  Grade 3's > Grade 1's > Grade 2's.  Unless you're against Musketeers.  Then you just don't stun.  Fuck those guys.

Starter - Larva Mutant, Giraffa

Triggers - 8 crit, 4 draw, 4 heal

Grade 1's

4x Pupa Mutant, Giraffa
4x Paralyze Maddonna ($6)
2x Stealth Millipede (NOW we can make 21k, so this is stronk)
 
2x Phantom Black
2x Megacolony Battler, B <- Best grade 1 MEGACOLON
 
Grade 2's

4x Elite Mutant, Giraffa ($6 for all 4)

4x Iron Cutter Beetle
3x Machining Armor Beetle
($3, in the current promo packs) <- Best grade 2 MEGACOLON

Grade 3's

4x Evil Armor General, Giraffa ($6 for all 4)
4x Violent Vesper

COST - $39 + R's and C's


MegaDRAWlony Deck:

This deck focuses on building soul and attacking rear guards with Fraude, typically supported by Battler C initially.  For those unfamiliar with the grade 3's in this list, Ant Lion is their megablast unit.  We use him to feed our soul for rear guard Fraudes.  Fraude's effect is, if he hits anything, you can soul blast 3 and draw.  If you swing with him and a 5k boost into a rear guard, they'll be annoyed.  They have to drop 10000 to guard their rear guard, or lose that rear guard, give me an extra card, and I can choose to stun a unit.  Sadly, even though Battler B is the best grade 1 MEGACOLON, his effect only works if the attack hits the Vanguard.  So place him behind the Vanguard, and if you have extras, behind your other row.  This deck is all about on-hit pressure, so remember, if your opponent doesn't hate their life after playing against this deck, you aren't trolling them hard enough.

The combination of draw power, stalling, and annoying-bugginess is enough to make this deck legitimately close to as likely to lose by decking out as it is by hitting 6 damage.

Starter - Megacolony Battler C

Triggers - WHATEVER THE FUCK YOU WANT SINCE THEY'RE ALL GREAT FOR THIS DECK

Grade 1's

4x Paralyze Maddonna ($6)
4x Machining Mosquito
3x Megacolony Battler, B <- Best grade 1 MEGACOLON
3x Phantom Black

Grade 2's


4x
Machining Armor Beetle ($3, in the current promo packs) <- Best grade 2 MEGACOLON
4x Tail Joe
2x Bloody Hercules
1x Water Gang

Grade 3's

4x Death Warden Ant Lion
4x Master Fraude


COST - $36 + R's and C's

Monday, November 11, 2013

Breakride Dungaree

So, it surprises me that budget decks have overtaken both mixed and rush decks for the lists that you guys want to see.  Since the economy sucks and money is tight, I'm going to be releasing a quick series of budget decks.  For these budget decks, any card that costs more than a buck will be labelled with a rough pricing, so you can get a good idea of how much the deck will cost you.

Starter
Set 11: Spark Kid Dragoon
Set 12: Exorcist Mage, DanDan

Triggers
4-8x Eradicator Critical Triggers (8 post set 10)

0-4x Non-Eradicator Critical Triggers
4x Eradicator Draw Triggers
4x Eradicator Heal Triggers

Grade 1's
4x Red River Dragoon
4x Wyvern Guard, Guld (5)
2x Eradicator, Demolition Dragon
2x Eradicator of Fire, Kohkaiji
2x Rising Phoenix

Grade 2's
4x Hex Cannon Wyvern

4x Fiendish Sword Eradicator, Cho-Ou (8 currently, hopefully this card will drop some more)

3x Dragonic Deathscythe (4)

Grade 3's
4x Eradicator, Vowing Sword Dragon (10)
4x Sealed Demon Dragon, Dungaree (2)

This deck functions like Vermillion, only it does it for a single counterblast and a break ride instead of 3 counterblasts. This opens up more versatility for Deathscythe's ability. Cho-Ou can be used to toss excess draw triggers to soul to do more retirement. Dungaree swings for 21k with Kougaji, and 16k on the RG with any 7k booster. Rising Phoenix hits magic numbers with many, many units, and can even make the VG row swing for 16k if necessary.  All around a solid amount of control that makes Vermillion insanely jealous while still having the option to snipe the backrow with Deathscythe, an option too expensive for Vemillion at the moment.

Deck cost - 100 dollars + Commons and Rares.  This will drop over time as Deathscythe sees less play and Cho-ou drops after its initial price hike (started at 14 bucks for a RR!),  No real way to curb the cost of Vowing Sword.  Fortunately, 16 of the commons come in a single trial deck, which you would need to purchase to get a single Vowing Sword in the first place.
  All-in-all, an extremely solid control build that's cost effective both in-game and out of game.

Jankride Tachikaze

So, it surprises me that budget decks have overtaken both mixed and rush decks for the lists that you guys want to see.  Since the economy sucks and money is tight, I'm going to be releasing a quick series of budget decks.  We'll start with the one that just won locals for me this last week, Jankride Tachikaze.  For these budget decks, any card that costs more than a buck will be labelled with a rough pricing, so you can get a good idea of how much the deck will cost you.

Starter - Dragon Egg

Triggers - 12 crit, 4 Heal

Grade 1's

4x Sonic Noah
4x Null Guard (5-8 dollars)
4x Winged Dragon, Skyptero

2x Winged Dragon, Beamptero
 
Grade 2's

4x Vanilla 10k

3x Winged Dragon, Slashptero
2x Dragon Cannon Fire, Cannon Gear
2x Savage Archer
 
Grade 3's

4x
Ravenous Dragon, Battlerex (1-4 dollars)
2x Ancient Dragon, Spinodriver (7-10 dollars)
2x Ancient Dragon, Stegobuster

The idea for the deck is to have a very tricky Vanguard row. Even if you miss the break ride, Battlerex's power can shoot up like crazy late game by drive checking a grade 3 and offing a Beamptero or Slashptero for a massive 13k power boost. Additionally, you can compensate for minusing with even more plus-power on your third row if you miss the 21k set-up with Stego and Noah or by bringing units like Dragon Egg and Skyptero back to your hand. If you hit the break ride, awesome. Your backrow (which are tough to target with retirement shifting to mostly front row lately) is where all of your recycling units are, so they can't even really stop your plussing from the break ride by swinging into your units.  Even if they do hit your backrow, you can just counterblast 1 and add them back to your hand regardless.  All-in-all, I've found it to be very consistent in making good rows, and very deadly/trolly lategame with the ability to break a full 15k guard by checking a single grade 3. ~_~ And it's really fun.

Odds of breaking a two-to-pass late game:

Situation A: 8/49 times, you break a two-to-pass on your first check.
Situation B: 16/49 times you hit a trigger which you can stack on your Vanguard because the odds of breaking a two-to-pass are ENORMOUS.
Situation C: 25/49 times you hit nothing.

Situation D: 8/49 times, you break the two-to-pass on your second check.
Situation E: 16/49 times you hit a trigger on the second drive check. If situation B occurred, you just broke the two-to-pass.
Situation F: 25/49 times you hit nothing.

8/49 times you break it with Situation A and any other situation. = 16.32%
16/49 times * 24/49 times you break the two-to-pass by hitting either a double trigger or a trigger into a grade 3. = 16%
Situation C you only hit it if you hit Situation D = 25/49 * 8/49 = 8.33%

Add them together for a total of 40.65%. With standard grade 3 ratios.


Total cost:  (Assuming 6 dollar nulls, 3 dollar Battlerexes, and 8 dollar Spinodrivers)
52 bucks + commons and rares.  Roughly 60-65 total.  This makes it about 30% cheaper than a standard Ancient Dragon deck, which is already known as one of the more budget builds.