Just how likely is it to die from Critical Triggers at 2/3 life with Triple-Drive!!?

To preface this, it would give you a good understanding of where some of my numbers came from if you read the original article for how likely it is to die from a double critical on a Twin-Drive!! here.

Here are the odds of getting hit with 2 OR MORE critical triggers during Triple-Drive!!!.

16 Crits: 30.6%
15 Crits: 26.7%
14 Crits: 23.22%
13 Crits: 19.89%
12 Crits: 16.8%
11 Crits: 14.04%
10 Crits: 11.46%
9 Crits: 9.18%
8 Crits: 7.14%
7 Crits: 5.37%
6 Crits: 3.84%
5 Crits: 2.55%
4 Crits: 1.53%
3 Crits: 0.78%
2 Crits: 0.255%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%

Double Criticals

The odds of hitting 2 criticals in a Triple-Drive!!! can be found by calculating the odds of hitting a double crit on twin-drive * 3 - the odds of hitting a triple crit.


16 Crits: 27.56%
15 Crits: 24.23%
14 Crits: 21.244%
13 Crits: 18.338%
12 Crits: 15.606%
11 Crits: 13.144%
10 Crits: 10.809%
9 Crits: 8.724%
8 Crits: 6.836%
7 Crits: 5.18%
6 Crits: 3.731%
5 Crits: 2.496%
4 Crits: 1.508%
3 Crits: .775%
2 Crits: 0.255%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%

Odds of them getting three criticals in a Triple-Drive!!

16 Crits: 3.04%
15 Crits: 2.47%
14 Crits: 1.976%
13 Crits: 1.552%
12 Crits: 1.194%
11 Crits: 0.896%
10 Crits: 0.651%
9 Crits: 0.456%
8 Crits: 0.304%
7 Crits: 0.19%
6 Crits: 0.109%
5 Crits: .054%
4 Crits: .022%
3 Crits: .005%
2 Crits: 0%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%


Odds of damage checking heals with 4 in your deck.

Checking a heal: 8.16%
Double checking heals: .5%
Triple checking heals: .02%
Quadruple checking heals: .00047%

Checking one heal in two damage checks: 15.8%

Checking one heal in three damage checks: 22.98%

Checking one heal in four damage checks: 29.678%

Checking two heals in three damage checks: 1.531%

Checking two heals in four damage checks: 3.061%

The odds of dying to an opponent who is at 3 or less damage and them getting a two crits while you are at 3 damage would be:

16 Crits: 21.227%
15 Crits: 18.662%
14 Crits: 16.362%
13 Crits: 14.124%
12 Crits: 12.02%
11 Crits: 10.124%
10 Crits: 8.325%
9 Crits: 6.719%
8 Crits: 5.265%
7 Crits: 3.99%
6 Crits: 2.874%
5 Crits: 1.922%
4 Crits: 1.161%
3 Crits: 0.597%
2 Crits: 0.196%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%


The odds of dying to an opponent who is at 3 or less damage and them getting three crits while you are at 3 damage would be:


16 Crits: 2.947%
15 Crits: 2.394%
14 Crits: 1.916%
13 Crits: 1.504%
12 Crits: 1.157%
11 Crits: 0.867%
10 Crits: 0.631%
9 Crits: 0.442%
8 Crits: 0.295%
7 Crits: 0.184%
6 Crits: 0.106%
5 Crits: 0.052%
4 Crits: 0.021%
3 Crits: 0.005%
2 Crits: 0%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%


The odds of dying to an opponent who is at 3 damage and them getting two or more criticals while you are at 3 damage would be:

16 Crits: 24.147%
15 Crits: 21.056%
14 Crits: 18.278%
13 Crits: 15.628%
12 Crits: 13.177%
11 Crits: 10.991%
10 Crits: 8.956%
9 Crits: 7.161%
8 Crits: 5.56%
7 Crits: 4.174%
6 Crits: 2.98%
5 Crits: 1.974%
4 Crits: 1.182%
3 Crits: 0.602%
2 Crits: 0.196%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%


The odds of dying to an opponent who is at 4 damage and them getting two crits while you are at 3 damage would be:

16 Crits: 23.206%
15 Crits: 20.402%
14 Crits: 17.887%
13 Crits: 15.441%
12 Crits: 13.14%
11 Crits: 11.067%
10 Crits: 9.101%
9 Crits: 7.346%
8 Crits: 5.756%
7 Crits: 4.362%
6 Crits: 3.142%
5 Crits: 2.102%
4 Crits: 1.27%
3 Crits: .653%
2 Crits: 0.215%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%


The odds of dying to an opponent who is at 4 damage and them getting three crits while you are at 3 damage would be:

16 Crits: 2.993%
15 Crits: 2.432%
14 Crits: 1.946%
13 Crits: 1.528%
12 Crits: 1.176%
11 Crits: 0.882%
10 Crits: 0.641%
9 Crits: 0.449%
8 Crits: 0.299%
7 Crits: 0.187%
6 Crits: 0.107%
5 Crits: .053%
4 Crits: .022%
3 Crits: .005%
2 Crits: 0%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%


The odds of dying to an opponent who is at 4 damage and them getting two or more criticals while you are at 3 damage would be:

16 Crits: 26.199%
15 Crits: 22.834%
14 Crits: 19.833%
13 Crits: 16.969%
12 Crits: 14.316%
11 Crits: 11.949%
10 Crits: 9.742%
9 Crits: 7.795%
8 Crits: 6.055%
7 Crits: 4.549%
6 Crits: 3.249%
5 Crits: 2.155%
4 Crits: 1.292%
3 Crits: 0.658%
2 Crits: 0.215%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%



The odds of dying to an opponent who is at 5 damage and them getting two crits while you are at 3 damage would be:


16 Crits: 25.311%
15 Crits: 22.253%
14 Crits: 19.51%
13 Crits: 16.842%
12 Crits: 14.333%
11 Crits: 12.071%
10 Crits: 9.927%
9 Crits: 8.012%
8 Crits: 6.278%
7 Crits: 4.757%
6 Crits: 3.427%
5 Crits: 2.292%
4 Crits: 1.358%
3 Crits: 0.712%
2 Crits: 0.234%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%


The odds of dying to an opponent who is at 5 damage and them getting three crits while you are at 3 damage would be:

16 Crits: 3.025%
15 Crits: 2.458%
14 Crits: 1.966%
13 Crits: 1.544%
12 Crits: 1.188%
11 Crits: 0.892%
10 Crits: 0.648%
9 Crits: 0.454%
8 Crits: 0.302%
7 Crits: 0.189%
6 Crits: 0.108%
5 Crits: .054%
4 Crits: .022%
3 Crits: .005%
2 Crits: 0%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%


The odds of dying to an opponent who is at 5 damage and them getting two or more criticals while you are at 3 damage would be:

16 Crits: 28.336%
15 Crits: 24.711%
14 Crits: 21.476%
13 Crits: 18.386%
12 Crits: 15.521%
11 Crits: 12.963%
10 Crits: 10.575%
9 Crits: 8.466%
8 Crits: 6.58%
7 Crits: 4.946%
6 Crits: 3.535%
5 Crits: 2.346%
4 Crits: 1.38%
3 Crits: 0.717%
2 Crits: 0.234%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%

Triple Criticals

Okay, so we have our numbers for double crit at 3 damage.  What about the odds of dying when getting triple crit at 2 damage?  We have one more damage to play with, so this is going to have an extra layer of math.  Let's get to it!

Odds of hitting three critical triggers on a Triple-Drive!!!:

16 Crits: 3.04%
15 Crits: 2.47%
14 Crits: 1.976%
13 Crits: 1.552%
12 Crits: 1.194%
11 Crits: 0.896%
10 Crits: 0.651%
9 Crits: 0.456%
8 Crits: 0.304%
7 Crits: 0.19%
6 Crits: 0.109%
5 Crits: .054%
4 Crits: .022%
3 Crits: .005%
2 Crits: 0%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%

The odds of dying to an opponent who is at 2 or less damage and them getting a triple crit while you are at 2 damage would be:

16 Crits: 2.138%
15 Crits: 1.737%
14 Crits: 1.39%
13 Crits: 1.091%
12 Crits: 0.84%
11 Crits: 0.63%
10 Crits: 0.458%
9 Crits: 0.321%
8 Crits: 0.214%
7 Crits: 0.134%
6 Crits: 0.077%
5 Crits: 0.038%
4 Crits: 0.015%
3 Crits: 0.004%
2 Crits: 0%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%

The odds of dying to an opponent who is at 3 damage and them getting a triple crit while you are at 2 damage would be:


16 Crits: 2.341%
15 Crits: 1.902%
14 Crits: 1.522%
13 Crits: 1.195%
12 Crits: 0.92%
11 Crits: 0.69%
10 Crits: 0.501%
9 Crits: 0.351%
8 Crits: 0.234%
7 Crits: 0.146%
6 Crits: 0.084%
5 Crits: 0.042%
4 Crits: 0.017%
3 Crits: 0.004%
2 Crits: 0%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%

The odds of dying to an opponent who is at 4 damage and them getting a triple crit while you are at 2 damage would be:

16 Crits: 2.56%
15 Crits: 2.08%
14 Crits: 1.664%
13 Crits: 1.307%
12 Crits: 1.005%
11 Crits: 0.754%
10 Crits: 0.548%
9 Crits: 0.384%
8 Crits: 0.256%
7 Crits: 0.16%
6 Crits: 0.092%
5 Crits: 0.045%
4 Crits: 0.019%
3 Crits: 0.004%
2 Crits: 0%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%

The odds of dying to an opponent who is at 5 damage and them getting a triple crit while you are at 2 damage would be:

16 Crits: 2.792%
15 Crits: 2.268%
14 Crits: 1.815%
13 Crits: 1.425%
12 Crits: 1.097%
11 Crits: 0.823%
10 Crits: 0.598%
9 Crits: 0.419%
8 Crits: 0.279%
7 Crits: 0.174%
6 Crits: 0.1%
5 Crits: 0.05%
4 Crits: 0.02%
3 Crits: 0.005%
2 Crits: 0%
1 Crit: 0%
0 Crits: 0%