What's an Standard Deviation?!

I'm perfectly cool with some random things happening now and again, but I expect a normalized spread of things to occur.  Within at least the second Standard Deviation.  Ever since I started using statistics in this game, I can't help but find that I should average getting a particular grade 3 Vanguard on turn 3 a certain amount of the time.  This is like getting your one-of-four Vermillion or Garmore on turn 3.  Standard stuff.  The odds of getting one would be pretty high, more than half of the time to be exact.  But my deck has to be the systemic anomaly.

Mathematical fun time.

So, the average amount of times I should be getting that grade 3 on turn 3 would be:  25.5~/40 games.  I used some lazy math and got about 64% for the odds of me getting a particular grade 3 in time to ride it on turn 3, not counting missriding as I've left those games out of what I've been recording.

I've playtested this particular deck (Corrupt Paladins of Soul on this blog) extensively, and I have gotten this particular grade 3 (with no searchers/card draw other than 4 draw triggers) 6 times in those 40 playtests.  I playtested it 10 games this week, so here's my results.

1st game- Deck trolled me.  It was my second damage check.  Didn't see another.

2nd game- 3 of them made up the bottom 4 cards of my deck.  The other one was 10 from the bottom.

3rd game- Spread them apart in the deck before shuffling, then sufficiently randomized cards.  Ride my 1-of Palamedes.  Drive check Lohengrin, and because I did, I can't guard and lose the following turn.

4th game- Have someone else shuffle my deck.  They shuffled, 2nd damage check was that grade 3.  6th damage check was that grade 3.

5th/6th game- Played online.  Rode my 2-of grade 3 each game.  Hit one Lohengrin... as a damage check.  Yup.

7th game- Aggressive mulligan (5).  Had no Lohengrin, threw everything back, hit no Lohengrin.  First damage check it went away, rest were near bottom.

8th game- Turn 2, had no grade 3.  Shuffled deck to search for Soul Saver with Pongal.
Lohengrin was my top card.  ;__;  Didn't see it rest of game.

9th game- I played against a new guy at the shop who had a starter deck.  I get Lohengrin opening hand.  I proceed to stomp him with my 32k Barron rows.  ~_~  Well, when I can get him out, the deck works great, at least.  >_<

10th game- Simply didn't see him at all.  Didn't bother checking my deck for him.  Decided it was writin' time.

So this means that I'm hitting my grade 3 19.5 games less than I should be (48.5% off from the mark of 64% that I should be getting).  I would have needed to get Lohengrin 4.25 times as much as I did to be hitting him as much as I should.  And that's not counting hitting multiples of him in a single game.  My brain is severely addled by this, as I use pretty sufficient shuffling methods and even called in other people to shuffle.  I even used an online shuffler a few games and got the same results.

So, the odds of me getting this result would be a 0.000000000000000X type of result.  Give or take a few 0's since I'm feeling too lazy to work it out.  That's how much this deck hates me.  My results are close enough to 0 to be counted as 0.  Yup.