What's an Standard Deviation?!

I'm perfectly cool with some random things happening now and again, but I expect a normalized spread of things to occur.  Within at least the second Standard Deviation.  Ever since I started using statistics in this game, I can't help but find that I should average getting a particular grade 3 Vanguard on turn 3 a certain amount of the time.  This is like getting your one-of-four Vermillion or Garmore on turn 3.  Standard stuff.  The odds of getting one would be pretty high, more than half of the time to be exact.  But my deck has to be the systemic anomaly.

Mathematical fun time.

So, the average amount of times I should be getting that grade 3 on turn 3 would be:  25.5~/40 games.  I used some lazy math and got about 64% for the odds of me getting a particular grade 3 in time to ride it on turn 3, not counting missriding as I've left those games out of what I've been recording.

I've playtested this particular deck (Corrupt Paladins of Soul on this blog) extensively, and I have gotten this particular grade 3 (with no searchers/card draw other than 4 draw triggers) 6 times in those 40 playtests.  I playtested it 10 games this week, so here's my results.

1st game- Deck trolled me.  It was my second damage check.  Didn't see another.

2nd game- 3 of them made up the bottom 4 cards of my deck.  The other one was 10 from the bottom.

3rd game- Spread them apart in the deck before shuffling, then sufficiently randomized cards.  Ride my 1-of Palamedes.  Drive check Lohengrin, and because I did, I can't guard and lose the following turn.

4th game- Have someone else shuffle my deck.  They shuffled, 2nd damage check was that grade 3.  6th damage check was that grade 3.

5th/6th game- Played online.  Rode my 2-of grade 3 each game.  Hit one Lohengrin... as a damage check.  Yup.

7th game- Aggressive mulligan (5).  Had no Lohengrin, threw everything back, hit no Lohengrin.  First damage check it went away, rest were near bottom.

8th game- Turn 2, had no grade 3.  Shuffled deck to search for Soul Saver with Pongal.
Lohengrin was my top card.  ;__;  Didn't see it rest of game.

9th game- I played against a new guy at the shop who had a starter deck.  I get Lohengrin opening hand.  I proceed to stomp him with my 32k Barron rows.  ~_~  Well, when I can get him out, the deck works great, at least.  >_<

10th game- Simply didn't see him at all.  Didn't bother checking my deck for him.  Decided it was writin' time.

So this means that I'm hitting my grade 3 19.5 games less than I should be (48.5% off from the mark of 64% that I should be getting).  I would have needed to get Lohengrin 4.25 times as much as I did to be hitting him as much as I should.  And that's not counting hitting multiples of him in a single game.  My brain is severely addled by this, as I use pretty sufficient shuffling methods and even called in other people to shuffle.  I even used an online shuffler a few games and got the same results.

So, the odds of me getting this result would be a 0.000000000000000X type of result.  Give or take a few 0's since I'm feeling too lazy to work it out.  That's how much this deck hates me.  My results are close enough to 0 to be counted as 0.  Yup.

Platinum Rush Wins a Locals

I was messing around with this deck at locals this week and I managed to pick up a locals win with it. It's one of those decks that is very consistent, but when you can't get out the cards you need, it falls apart quickly. The deck can rack up 1-8 damage on turn two depending on how good/bad your setup is. I'll talk more about how the deck works, but first, the list.

Grade 0's
Starter - Goyusha
8 Crits
8 Stands (one should be Guide Dolphin)

Grade 1's
4x Karenroid Daisy
4x Commander Laurel (Key card)
4x Speedster
3x Diamond Ace
2x Daimariner

Grade 2's
4x Platinum Ace (Key card)
4x Cosmic Rider
4x Cosmo Beak

Grade 3's
4x Super Dimensional Robo, Daiyusha (Key card)

The focus of the deck is to get Platinum Ace out on turn 2 with a Laurel in the back. Use your other DPolice units to give +power to Platinum and give him that bonus crit. Since this is turn 2, your opponent likely isn't established enough to guard the hit. If he lets the attack hit, you get to stand your Vanguard that already has bonus crit and swing again. You also get two drive checks. If you hit a crit on the first drive check, and they can't block you again, you just dealt 6 damage on your first turn attacking. If not, you could hit a stand and stand the booster for the Vanguard to keep the attacks hard to block. Either way, the deck hits the ground running from the start of the match and doesn't really fall off.

Hitting Daiyusha is a luxury that should happen after 3-5 turns, typically. You will miss him some games, but that's the nature of a 4 g3 rush deck. Since he's essentially a 1k stronger Platinum Ace with Twin-Drive!!, there's no reason not to hold onto one if you get one in your opening hand, even though you're rushing.

The deck can generate its own weird form of card advantage by getting more drive checks. Other than that, you try to sit on your guard, letting yourself take 2 damage early for Cosmo, then more later if you need it. It really banks on your opponent not being able to guard everything all the time and punishes them heavily for any attacks hitting.

As for the tournament, here's the match breakdown:

Round 1: Narukami (2W - 1L)

First game I drew into crap. Roasted crap with sprinkles. Got a solid rush game two. Got an amazing rush game 3, securing the win.

Round 2: OTT (2W - 0L)

He played Dark Cats both games and I drew into my perfect setup. One game was over before he could ride grade 3. Flawless rushes. He had to do a 1-to-pass on a 2 crit Platinum Ace, and I hit a crit to seal the second game.

Round 3: Shadow Paladins (2W - 1L)

Game one I got out a beautiful 2 crit Platinum Ace. He couldn't guard it. I stood. He couldn't guard it. I hit a stand, and took out a rear-guard. He saw instantly that he was boned and told me that the deck was terrifying. I lost the second game (which was close) and pulled out a solid win in the third game.

Round 4: Spike Brothers (2W - 1L)

I would have digipwned him each game, but he drew into no less than 3 nulls each game, which slowed me down, even though I had a perfect setup games one and two. I won by not standing my Vanguard with Laurel and hitting with rears in game one (when I had to explain to him that Dudley can only call to open RG slots, which he didn't know, and had out a full front row of Emperors, which I refused to swing into). Second game I needed a trigger on my last drive check to win and missed it, so he got me. Third game I was gradelocked. At 0. In a deck with 17 grade 1's. O_O The game goes late, and I hit with a 1 crit Daiyusha, bringing him to 4 damage. I hit a stand. I stand my booster, give the power to Daiyusha, stand him with Laurel, and swing with a now 20k 2 crit Vanguard. He no passes me. I think to myself, "Welp, I'm fucked. No way I'm winning this now." First check, Justice Cobalt. I give the effects to my Platinum Ace rear guard. I'm like, "Wait, if I hit a stand..." Second check, Guide Dolphin. I stand Platinum Ace, which now has 2 crits. He has 0 guard and a 15k Vanguard. I swing and he hits no heals.

So, in a fit of turbosacking (even though if he had just stopped drawing all of those damn nulls I wouldn't have had to sack), I was able to pull away with my first locals victory at this card shop. xD

I got 6 packs for winning. I waited for the 2nd place guy (Shadow Paladin player I played earlier) to pick his packs. He got set 5. Pulled nothing. I get 6 packs of set 5, get one Kay. Next person got a random prize drawing, gets only one set 5, SP Wingal Brave. ;__;

So, I give the Kay to a friend who needed it and gave the rest of the cards to some kid who was just starting to play. I log on when I get home and see that yet another person brought Kageroyals to their locals and won. :D Good day today, except for the pulls and the nulls. ~_~

(If there are any questions on the deck or why I put the cards I did in the deck, feel free to ask me.)

Link to a video of two 6 damage turns with Platinum Rush

Official Monoclan Kageroyals Variants

Kageroadhouse

Starter - Lizard Solider Conroe

16 Kagero Critical Triggers

4 Bahr
4 Perfect Guard
6 8k's from other clans

11 Kagero 10k vanillas

4 Waterfall
4 Graphite Cannon Dragon

Revenge Tastes Vanilla

Starter - Spinbau Revenger

16 Shadow Paladin Critical Triggers

4x Sharron
4x Revenger Mac Lir (Perfect Guard)
6x 8k's from other clans

11x Shadow Paladin Vanilla 10k's, max out on the Revenger Rugos.
OR
4x Revenger Rugos
4x Revenger Masquerade
3x Shadow Paladin Vanilla 10k

4x Curse Spear Revenger, Diarmuid
4x Revenger of Labyrinth, Araun

Diarmuid offers a few things to the Kageroyals playstyle: Late game finishing power, and consistency. No matter how you slice the cake, Waterfall is a -1 from hand, and this is a -1 from the field to apply that extra pressure. The trade off is that you have more targets in this version, but they have to be sacked from the field. If you're feeling brave, you can sack one of the 8 crits for Revengers or just off a grade 2 that swung at a RG. There's plenty of combo play here, and while it is a Limit Break, 26k 2 crit is just too juicy to pass up, and he is on equal grounds with Waterfall most of the time. We also get the archetype grade 3's to enable the use of 12k beaters in the deck to hit 20k in some rows. This comes with its own risks (harder to guard if you're forced to ride, easier to attack on the RG by unboosted units) and rewards (great attacking uboosted or boosted vs. 10k Vanguards). That decision is player preference.